How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026 Odds · In 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 95% | -1900 | ▲ 5 |
| At least 3 | 34% | +194 | — |
| At least 5 | 30% | +233 | — |
| At least 10 | 4% | +2400 | — |
| At least 15 | 2% | +6352 | — |
| At least 20 | 4% | +2603 | — |
| At least 25 | 4% | +2757 | — |
| At least 50 | 3% | +3233 | — |
| At least 75 | 3% | +3900 | — |
| At least 100 | 3% | +3822 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the number of non-incumbent candidates endorsed by Elon Musk after Issuance who are elected to federal office in elections held before Nov 4, 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 3, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many Elon-backed non-incumbents will win seats in Congress in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.