House Majority Leader of the next Congress Odds
Polymarket traders give Katherine Clark a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine Clark | 97% | -2799 | — |
| Pete Aguilar | 3% | +3746 | — |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 2% | +5961 | — |
| Joe Neguse | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Ted Lieu | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Steve Scalise | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Jim Jordan | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Tom Emmer | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Lisa McClain | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in House Majority Leader of the next Congress?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Katherine Clark at 97%, about -2799 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on House Majority Leader of the next Congress?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.