Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026 Odds · Dec 12, 2026
Kalshi traders give No a 60% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41% | +147 | ▲ 12 |
| No | 60% | -147 | ▼ 12 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 60%, about -147 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 13, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.