French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bardella | 2% | +4344 | — |
| Michel Barnier | 2% | +4445 | — |
| Valérie Pécresse | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | <1% | +11665 | ▼ 3 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 4% | +2147 | — |
| Jean Castex | 2% | +5782 | — |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3% | +3409 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3% | +3822 | — |
| François Bayrou | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 2% | +4445 | — |
| Carole Delga | 3% | +3471 | — |
| François Hollande | 17% | +488 | ▼ 2 |
| Manuel Bompard | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Mathilde Panot | 2% | +4445 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 81% | -413 | ▼ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 18, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.