French presidential election: who will advance Odds · Apr 18, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 84% | -506 | ▲ 2 |
| Édouard Philippe | 23% | +344 | ▼ 19 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 45% | +122 | ▲ 2 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | 11% | +809 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 3% | +3900 | — |
| François Hollande | 5% | +1900 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Olivier Faure | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3% | +3233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Marine Le Pen is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Apr 17, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on French presidential election: who will advance?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.