French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials Odds
Polymarket traders give Bruno Retailleau a 36% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 36% | +182 | ▼ 3 |
| David Lisnard | 25% | +308 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 22% | +355 | — |
| Édouard Philippe | 20% | +400 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | 8% | +1174 | — |
| Marine Tondelier | 7% | +1242 | — |
| François Ruffin | 7% | +1308 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 6% | +1639 | — |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 5% | +1941 | — |
| Fabien Roussel | 4% | +2339 | ▼ 1 |
| Sarah Knafo | 4% | +2567 | — |
| François Hollande | 3% | +3471 | — |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3% | +3674 | — |
| Marine Le Pen | 1% | +9424 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 2 |
| Nathalie Arthaud | <1% | +15285 | — |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | +18082 | — |
| François Asselineau | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. To appear on the ballot, candidates must be presented by at least 500 eligible elected officials (“parrainages”), whose presentations are validated and published by the French Constitutional Council. The deadline for submitting presentations is currently expected to be March 12, 2027, at 6:00 PM local time. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid presentations (parrainages) from elected officials for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to the final tally published by the French Constitutional Council. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If no final tally of valid presentations is published by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Bruno Retailleau at 36%, about +182 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 13, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.