Fed Decision in January Odds
Polymarket traders give No change a 74% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 74% | -277 | — |
| 25 bps increase | 19% | +441 | — |
| 25 bps decrease | 4% | +2603 | — |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% | +7307 | — |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | +13233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Fed Decision in January?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No change at 74%, about -277 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 28, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Fed Decision in January?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.