Dem sweep & Democrat wins 2028 presidency Odds
Polymarket traders give Dem sweep; Dem wins 2028 a 61% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dem sweep; Dem wins 2028 | 61% | -159 | — |
| Dem sweep; Dem loses 2028 | 37% | +171 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the Democratic Party’s candidate wins the 2028 United States presidential election. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Dem wins 2028" or "Dem loses 2028"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". 2028 presidential election: This component is "Dem wins 2028" if the candidate of the Democratic Party is elected President of the United States in the 2028 United States presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Otherwise, it is "Dem loses 2028". This component will be determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029), this component will be determined by the party of the candidate who is inaugurated. House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the 2026 midterm election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the 2026 midterm election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected member
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Dem sweep & Democrat wins 2028 presidency?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Dem sweep; Dem wins 2028 at 61%, about -159 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Dem sweep & Democrat wins 2028 presidency?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.