Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | +3179 | — |
| No | 97% | -3179 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” "Crypto market structure legislation" refers to any legislation that does all of the following: 1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins); 2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; 3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. Examples of qualifying legislation include the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (H.R.3633) and "The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act" (FIT21). The following would not qualify: - Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; - Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; - Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); - Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; - Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; - Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules; - The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); Qualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override). The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Congress and the United States President and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 97%, about -3179 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
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