Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi Odds
Polymarket traders give Mississippi a >99% chance (Kalshi: >99%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | <1% | +16567 | — | <1% |
| Mississippi | >99% | -16567 | — | >99% |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Minnesota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Mississippi Senate election. This market will resolve to "Mississippi" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Mississippi has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Minnesota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Mississippi at >99%, about -16567 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at >99%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.