Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by... Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 76% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 76% | -317 | ▲ 3 |
| No | 24% | +317 | ▼ 3 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by..."?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 76%, about -317 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.