Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory Odds · On Oct 25, 2026
This market has resolved: Lula da Silva, 3-6%. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva, 3-6% ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Lula da Silva, 0-3% | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9% | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Lula da Silva, 6-9% | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Lula da Silva, ≥9% | 1% | +9900 | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Oct 25, 2027 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory?
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