Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory Odds
This market has resolved: Lula da Silva 2-4%. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva 2-4% ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 96 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12% | 0% | — | ▼ 0 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10% | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8% | 0% | — | ▼ 5 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6% | 0% | — | ▼ 31 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4% | 0% | — | ▼ 28 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro <2% | 0% | — | ▼ 14 |
| Lula da Silva <2% | 0% | — | ▼ 16 |
| Lula da Silva 4-6% | 0% | — | — |
| Lula da Silva 6-8% | 0% | — | — |
| Lula da Silva 8-10% | 0% | — | — |
| Lula da Silva 10-12% | 0% | — | — |
| Lula da Silva 12%+ | 0% | — | — |
| Other | 0% | — | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 26, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.