Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026 Odds · Before Jan 3, 2027
Kalshi traders give Florida a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 97% | -3233 | ▼ 6 |
| Alaska | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Massachusetts | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Delaware | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Oregon | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Rhode Island | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Colorado | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Illinois | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Maine | <1% | +19900 | — |
| New Mexico | <1% | +19900 | — |
| New Jersey | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Virginia | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Minnesota | <1% | +19900 | — |
| New Hampshire | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Michigan | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Georgia | <1% | +19900 | — |
| North Carolina | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Ohio | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Iowa | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Texas | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Massachusetts is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Florida at 97%, about -3233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Apr 3, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.