Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Javier Milei a 60% chance (Kalshi: 59%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 60% | -147 | ▲ 1 | 59% |
| Axel Kicillof | 20% | +413 | ▼ 11 | 24% |
| Guillermo Moreno | 8% | +1127 | ▲ 4 | — |
| Karina Milei | 6% | +1526 | ▲ 1 | — |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 6% | +1670 | — | — |
| Daniel Hadad | 5% | +1735 | — | — |
| Sergio Massa | 5% | +2005 | — | 4% |
| Myriam Bregman | 4% | +2339 | — | 3% |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | 4% | +2757 | — | — |
| Facundo Manes | 2% | +4067 | — | — |
| Juan Grabois | 2% | +4445 | — | 2% |
| Mauricio Macri | 2% | +5305 | — | 2% |
| Patricia Bullrich | 2% | +5456 | — | 3% |
| Juan Schiaretti | 2% | +6567 | — | 2% |
| Esteban Bullrich | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Victoria Villarruel | <1% | +66567 | — | 2% |
| Dante Gebel | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Nicolás del Caño | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Javier Milei at 60%, about -147 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 59%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 25, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.