2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot Odds · Before Jun 30, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 97% | -3233 | — |
| Marine Le Pen | 92% | -1076 | — |
| Édouard Philippe | 78% | -355 | ▼ 2 |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 90% | -852 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 10% | +900 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | 24% | +326 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | 37% | +170 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 79% | -365 | ▼ 4 |
| François Ruffin | 19% | +426 | — |
| François Hollande | 27% | +270 | — |
| Marine Tondelier | 25% | +308 | ▼ 6 |
| Olivier Faure | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Clémentine Autain | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Fabien Roussel | 79% | -376 | ▲ 10 |
| Éric Zemmour | 75% | -292 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 35% | +186 | — |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 66% | -190 | — |
| François Asselineau | 17% | +488 | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 7% | +1329 | — |
| Jérôme Guedj | 9% | +1011 | — |
| Karim Bouamrane | 8% | +1150 | — |
| Gérald Darmanin | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Jean Lassalle | 77% | -335 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jun 30, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.