Largest IPO by market cap in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give SpaceX a 89% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 89% | -770 | ▼ 1 |
| Anthropic | 10% | +953 | ▼ 1 |
| OpenAI | <1% | +66567 | — |
| ByteDance | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Stripe | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Databricks | <1% | +199900 | — |
| SHEIN | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Waymo | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Revolut | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Discord | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Perplexity AI | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Kraken | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price SpaceX at 89%, about -770 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.