Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028 Odds
Polymarket traders give J.D. Vance a 32% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 32% | +212 | ▲ 4 |
| Marco Rubio | 31% | +228 | ▲ 12 |
| Ron DeSantis | 18% | +456 | — |
| Tom Cotton | 17% | +476 | ▼ 7 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 13% | +652 | ▼ 3 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 13% | +691 | ▼ 15 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 11% | +789 | ▲ 5 |
| Josh Hawley | 6% | +1526 | ▼ 6 |
| Ted Cruz | 6% | +1539 | ▼ 17 |
| Brian Kemp | 6% | +1581 | ▼ 3 |
| John McEntee | 5% | +1842 | ▼ 19 |
| Rand Paul | 5% | +2051 | ▼ 2 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4% | +2199 | ▼ 3 |
| Tucker Carlson | 4% | +2281 | ▼ 25 |
| Elon Musk | 4% | +2532 | ▼ 25 |
| Pete Hegseth | 4% | +2532 | ▼ 2 |
| Ivanka Trump | 4% | +2678 | ▼ 26 |
| Thomas Massie | 3% | +2799 | ▼ 12 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3% | +3025 | ▼ 25 |
| Donald Trump | 3% | +3233 | ▼ 29 |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | +18082 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Iowa is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the Iowa Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the Iowa public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 Iowa primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price J.D. Vance at 32%, about +212 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.