How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026 Odds · By Nov 30, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.04% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 5.03% or below ✓ | 98% | -4900 | — |
| 5.02% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 5.01% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 5% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.99% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.98% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.97% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.96% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.95% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.94% or below ✓ | 91% | -1011 | — |
| 4.93% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.92% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.91% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.9% or below ✓ | 0% | — | — |
| 4.89% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.88% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.87% or below ✓ | 98% | -4900 | — |
| 4.86% or below ✓ | 96% | -2400 | — |
| 4.85% or below ✓ | 97% | -3233 | — |
| 4.84% or below ✓ | 97% | -3233 | — |
| 4.83% or below | 74% | -277 | — |
| 4.82% or below | 70% | -233 | — |
| 4.81% or below | 69% | -223 | — |
| 4.8% or below | 64% | -178 | — |
| 4.79% or below | 62% | -160 | — |
| 4.78% or below | 61% | -156 | ▲ 3 |
| 4.77% or below | 55% | -122 | — |
| 4.76% or below | 34% | +194 | — |
| 4.75% or below | 43% | +133 | ▼ 7 |
| 4.74% or below | 45% | +122 | — |
| 4.73% or below | 42% | +138 | — |
| 4.72% or below | 37% | +170 | ▼ 5 |
| 4.71% or below | 36% | +178 | — |
| 4.7% or below | 49% | +104 | — |
| 4.69% or below | 29% | +245 | ▼ 2 |
| 4.68% or below | 28% | +257 | — |
| 4.67% or below | 23% | +335 | — |
| 4.66% or below | 24% | +326 | — |
| 4.65% or below | 22% | +365 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.05% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 30, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.