How high will unemployment get in 2026 Odds · Before 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 8% | +1233 | — |
| Above 4.8% | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Above 5% | 2% | +4551 | — |
| Above 5.5% | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Above 6% | 3% | +3290 | — |
| Above 6.5% | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Above 7% | 2% | +5614 | — |
| Above 8% | <1% | +10426 | — |
| Above 9% | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Above 10% | 2% | +4344 | — |
| Above 12% | 3% | +3348 | — |
| Above 15% | 2% | +6150 | — |
| Above 17% | 3% | +3746 | — |
| Above 20% | <1% | +16567 | — |
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Price history
On Polymarket
A similar market trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 8, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How high will unemployment get in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.