CA-45 House Election Margin of Victory Odds
Polymarket traders give Democrat 20-25% a 50% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat 20-25% | 50% | -101 | ▼ 3 |
| Democrat 25%+ | 24% | +311 | ▲ 22 |
| Republican 0-5% | 18% | +457 | ▼ 4 |
| Democrat 10-15% | 6% | +1702 | — |
| Democrat 15-20% | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Democrat 5-10% | 4% | +2199 | ▲ 1 |
| Democrat 0-5% | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Republican 5%+ | <1% | +10426 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 CA-45 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-45 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in CA-45 House Election Margin of Victory?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Democrat 20-25% at 50%, about -101 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 3, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on CA-45 House Election Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.