2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory Odds
Polymarket traders give Chiang Wan-an 12%+ a 23% chance (Kalshi: 66%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiang Wan-an 12%+ | 23% | +335 | ▼ 0 | 66% |
| Puma Shen 8%+ | 19% | +426 | ▲ 1 | — |
| Chiang Wan-an 4-8% | 19% | +441 | ▼ 10 | 66% |
| Chiang Wan-an <4% | 18% | +471 | ▼ 4 | 66% |
| Chiang Wan-an 8-12% | 15% | +567 | ▼ 7 | 66% |
| Puma Shen <4% | 14% | +614 | ▼ 10 | — |
| Puma Shen 4-8% | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 19 | — |
| Other | 2% | +4900 | — | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Taipei mayoral election is scheduled to take place on November 28, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Taipei. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?
As of Nov 15, 10:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Chiang Wan-an 12%+ at 23%, about +335 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 66%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 29, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2026 Taipei Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.