Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next Odds · During Trump's term
Kalshi traders give Pete Hegseth a 28% chance (Polymarket: 24%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 28% | +257 | ▼ 14 | 24% |
| Howard Lutnick | 22% | +355 | ▲ 12 | 13% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 22% | +365 | ▼ 2 | 3% |
| Marco Rubio | 13% | +700 | ▲ 3 | 15% |
| Scott Bessent | 5% | +1900 | — | 4% |
| Linda McMahon | 3% | +2930 | — | 14% |
| Mike Waltz | 3% | +2930 | — | <1% |
| Doug Collins | 3% | +2977 | — | 3% |
| Stephen Miller | 3% | +2977 | — | 1% |
| Todd Blanche | 3% | +2977 | — | 3% |
| Brooke Rollins | 3% | +3025 | — | 6% |
| Scott Turner | 3% | +3126 | — | <1% |
| Chris Wright | 3% | +3126 | — | 8% |
| John Ratcliffe | 3% | +3126 | — | 7% |
| Russell Vought | 3% | +3179 | — | — |
| Jamieson Greer | 3% | +3179 | — | 4% |
| Kelly Loeffler | 3% | +3233 | — | 3% |
| Sean Duffy | 3% | +3233 | — | 4% |
| Doug Burgum | 3% | +3233 | — | 4% |
| Lee Zeldin | 3% | +3290 | — | 11% |
| Christopher Phelan | 3% | +3348 | — | — |
| Markwayne Mullin | 3% | +3348 | ▲ 29 | 1% |
| Michael Kratsios | 3% | +3409 | — | — |
| Jay Clayton | 3% | +3409 | — | 2% |
| Keith Sonderling | 3% | +3471 | — | <1% |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Pete Hegseth at 28%, about +257 in American odds. On Polymarket the same outcome trades at 24%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 20, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.