Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 1% | +6797 | — |
| Japan | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Chile | 1% | +8991 | ▼ 1 |
| Mexico | <1% | +11011 | — |
| United States | 1% | +7592 | — |
| Philippines | 1% | +8596 | — |
| Peru | 1% | +9424 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after November 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.