When will the Rhine River return to normal levels Odds
Polymarket traders give November 15 - 30, 2026 a 30% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 - 30, 2026 | 30% | +233 | ▼ 4 |
| December 1 - 15, 2026 | 25% | +308 | ▼ 1 |
| Before November 15, 2026 | 19% | +441 | ▲ 7 |
| December 16 - 31, 2026 | 18% | +471 | ▼ 4 |
| No return before January 1, 2027 | 11% | +852 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price November 15 - 30, 2026 at 30%, about +233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.