When will the Danube River return to normal levels Odds
Polymarket traders give Does not return by January 1, 2027 a 39% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Does not return by January 1, 2027 | 39% | +156 | ▼ 0 |
| December 16 - 31, 2026 | 25% | +308 | ▲ 3 |
| November 15 - 30, 2026 | 22% | +355 | ▼ 1 |
| December 1 - 15, 2026 | 20% | +400 | ▲ 4 |
| Before November 15, 2026 | 5% | +1900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by January 1, 2027" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Does not return by January 1, 2027 at 39%, about +156 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.