What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season Odds · MJJ 2026 through MAM 2027
Kalshi traders give 2.5°C to 2.9°C a 74% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5°C to 2.9°C | 74% | -277 | ▼ 7 |
| At least 3.0°C | 17% | +488 | ▼ 1 |
| 2.0°C to 2.4°C | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Below 1.5°C | 2% | +6567 | — |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 2% | +6567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is below 1.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price 2.5°C to 2.9°C at 74%, about -277 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Aug 15, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.