What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño Odds
Polymarket traders give Over 2.5 a 70% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 70% | -228 | ▼ 1 |
| 2.25–2.5 | 27% | +270 | ▲ 2 |
| 2.0–2.25 | 3% | +3674 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Over 2.5 at 70%, about -228 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.