UK Annual GDP Growth 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 1-2% a 89% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2% | 89% | -785 | — |
| 0-1% | 6% | +1513 | — |
| 2-3% | 2% | +5163 | — |
| 5%+ | <1% | +15285 | — |
| <0 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| 4-5% | <1% | +33233 | — |
| 3-4% | <1% | +39900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release. If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in UK Annual GDP Growth 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 1-2% at 89%, about -785 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 13, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on UK Annual GDP Growth 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.