The Game Awards: Best Independent Game Odds
Polymarket traders give Big Walk a 45% chance (Kalshi: 47%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Walk | 45% | +122 | — | 47% |
| Mina the Hollower | 37% | +174 | — | 35% |
| Mewgenics | 7% | +1329 | ▼ 1 | 7% |
| Cairn | 5% | +2028 | ▼ 3 | 2% |
| Mixtape | 4% | +2253 | — | 5% |
| Meccha Chameleon | 4% | +2567 | ▼ 1 | — |
| Order of the Sinking Star | 3% | +3536 | — | 2% |
| Esoteric Ebb | 2% | +5456 | — | 3% |
| Fields of Mistria | <1% | +11011 | — | — |
| Mouse: P.I. For Hire | <1% | +14186 | — | 2% |
| Witchbrook | <1% | +14186 | — | <1% |
| Replaced | <1% | +15285 | — | <1% |
| MIO: Memories in Orbit | <1% | +24900 | — | — |
| Vampire Crawlers | <1% | +24900 | — | — |
| ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Reanimal | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Neverway | <1% | +49900 | — | — |
| inKONBINI: One Store. Many Stories | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| Phonopolis | <1% | +66567 | — | — |
| MOLE | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Titanium Court | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Grave Seasons | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Tenebris Somnia | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Coffee Talk Tokyo | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
The Game Awards are presented annually to honor achievements in the video game industry. The 2026 Game Awards are currently scheduled to be presented on December 10, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video game that wins the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game. If a game is not officially nominated for the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from The Game Awards, including data from their website (e.g., https://thegameawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in The Game Awards: Best Independent Game?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Big Walk at 45%, about +122 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 47%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on The Game Awards: Best Independent Game?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.