Game Awards: Best Independent Game Odds · Best Independent Game | 2026
Kalshi traders give Big Walk a 47% chance (Polymarket: 45%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Walk | 47% | +115 | — | 45% |
| Mina the Hollower | 35% | +190 | — | 37% |
| Mewgenics | 7% | +1438 | — | 7% |
| Mixtape | 5% | +2122 | — | 4% |
| Schrödinger’s Call | 4% | +2400 | — | — |
| Valheim | 4% | +2400 | — | — |
| Slay the Spire 2 | 3% | +3233 | — | — |
| Esoteric Ebb | 3% | +3900 | — | 2% |
| Tie | 3% | +3900 | — | — |
| Cairn | 2% | +4900 | — | 5% |
| Order of the Sinking Star | 2% | +4900 | — | 3% |
| Mouse: P.I. For Hire | 2% | +6567 | — | <1% |
| Replaced | <1% | +19900 | — | <1% |
| Witchbrook | <1% | +19900 | — | <1% |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Mina the Hollower has won Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Game Awards: Best Independent Game?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Big Walk at 47%, about +115 in American odds. On Polymarket the same outcome trades at 45%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Game Awards: Best Independent Game?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.