Recession this year Odds · In 2026
Kalshi traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | +3900 | — |
| No | 98% | -3900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Recession this year"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 98%, about -3900 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 31, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Recession this year?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.