OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Odds
Polymarket traders give 1.5T+ a 32% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5T+ | 32% | +211 | ▼ 1 |
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 28% | +258 | ▲ 1 |
| 1.25T–1.5T | 14% | +614 | — |
| 1T–1.25T | 11% | +797 | — |
| 750B–1T | 4% | +2281 | — |
| <500B | 2% | +5614 | — |
| 500–750B | 1% | +7043 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 1.5T+ at 32%, about +211 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.