October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) Odds
Polymarket traders give >1.49ºC a 93% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| >1.49ºC | 93% | -1329 | — |
| 1.45–1.49ºC | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 0 |
| 1.40–1.44ºC | 3% | +3025 | — |
| 1.35–1.39ºC | 3% | +3179 | ▼ 0 |
| 1.30–1.34ºC | 2% | +4155 | ▼ 2 |
| <1.30ºC | 2% | +5456 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price >1.49ºC at 93%, about -1329 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 2, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.