Negative GDP growth in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | +3471 | — |
| No | 97% | -3471 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Negative GDP growth in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 97%, about -3471 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 29, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Negative GDP growth in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.