Natural Disaster in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 95% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | +1735 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 95% | -1735 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Natural Disaster in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 95%, about -1735 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Natural Disaster in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.