Measles cases in U.S. in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑10k | 4% | +2226 | — |
| ↑6k | 96% | -2400 | ▲ 2 |
| ↑7k | 80% | -400 | ▲ 8 |
| ↑5.5k | 98% | -4551 | ▼ 1 |
| ↑6.5k | 93% | -1329 | ▲ 3 |
| ↑7.5k | 37% | +170 | ▲ 3 |
| ↑12.5k | 3% | +2885 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.