Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO Odds
Polymarket traders give Goldman Sachs a 51% chance (Kalshi: 65%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 51% | -102 | ▼ 5 | 65% |
| Morgan Stanley | 34% | +199 | ▲ 1 | 28% |
| Bank of America | 1% | +8991 | — | <1% |
| JPMorgan | <1% | +39900 | — | <1% |
| Citigroup | <1% | +39900 | — | <1% |
| Barclays | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| UBS | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Deutsche Bank | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Wells Fargo | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Goldman Sachs at 51%, about -102 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 65%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.