Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give ≤1.9% a 80% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1.9% | 80% | -398 | ▲ 19 |
| 2.0-2.4% | 19% | +428 | ▼ 19 |
| 2.5-2.9% | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 3.0-3.4% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 3.5-3.9% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 4.0%+ | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price ≤1.9% at 80%, about -398 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.