ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026 Odds
This market has resolved: 55.0 to 55.9. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55.0 to 55.9 ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 83 |
| <51.0 | 0% | — | — |
| 51.0 to 51.9 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| 52.0 to 52.9 | 0% | — | ▼ 15 |
| 53.0 to 53.9 | 0% | — | ▼ 17 |
| 54.0 to 54.9 | 0% | — | ▼ 40 |
| 56.0 to 56.9 | 0% | — | ▼ 11 |
| 57.0 to 57.9 | 0% | — | — |
| 58.0 to 58.9 | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| 59.0+ | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 2, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.