How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 1 a 48% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | +111 | ▲ 1 |
| 0 | 46% | +117 | ▲ 8 |
| 2 | 13% | +697 | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | 5% | +1920 | — |
| 5+ | 1% | +6797 | — |
| 4 | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 1 at 48%, about +111 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.