How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 14–16 a 62% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14–16 | 62% | -163 | — |
| 17–19 | 34% | +194 | — |
| 20+ | 4% | +2400 | — |
| 11–13 | 3% | +3126 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 14–16 at 62%, about -163 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 8, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.