Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 7.9 or below a 76% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9 or below | 76% | -317 | ▲ 1 |
| 8.4 – 8.5 | 9% | +1070 | — |
| 8.0 – 8.1 | 8% | +1233 | ▲ 1 |
| 8.2 – 8.3 | 7% | +1404 | — |
| 9.0 or above | 5% | +2098 | — |
| 8.6 – 8.7 | 3% | +3536 | — |
| 8.8 – 8.9 | 2% | +5961 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 7.9 or below at 76%, about -317 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 7, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.