GDP growth in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give >2.5% a 49% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| >2.5% | 49% | +103 | — |
| 2.0–2.5% | 49% | +104 | ▼ 0 |
| 1.5–2.0% | 2% | +5782 | — |
| <0.5% | <1% | +24900 | — |
| 0.5–1.0% | <1% | +39900 | — |
| 1.0–1.5% | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in GDP growth in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price >2.5% at 49%, about +103 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 29, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on GDP growth in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.