First snow of the 2026 season Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston, MA by November 15 | 52% | -106 | ▲ 3 |
| Buffalo, NY by November 15 | 51% | -104 | ▼ 13 |
| Chicago, IL by November 15 | 41% | +144 | ▲ 10 |
| Detroit, MI by November 15 | 49% | +106 | ▲ 26 |
| Indianapolis, IN by November 15 | 21% | +376 | ▼ 2 |
| Kansas City, MO by November 15 | 7% | +1329 | — |
| Minneapolis, MN by November 15 | 47% | +115 | ▲ 12 |
| Pittsburgh, PA by November 15 | 60% | -150 | ▲ 25 |
| Salt Lake City, UT by November 15 | 45% | +125 | ▼ 14 |
| Boston, MA by November 30 | 52% | -108 | ▼ 17 |
| Buffalo, NY by November 30 | 49% | +106 | ▼ 7 |
| Chicago, IL by November 30 | 80% | -388 | ▲ 16 |
| Cincinnati, OH by November 30 | 44% | +130 | ▲ 2 |
| Dallas, TX by November 30 | 10% | +900 | — |
| Detroit, MI by November 30 | 77% | -335 | ▲ 24 |
| Indianapolis, IN by November 30 | 50% | -100 | ▼ 24 |
| Kansas City, MO by November 30 | 48% | +111 | ▼ 28 |
| Minneapolis, MN by November 30 | 86% | -590 | — |
| Nashville, TN by November 30 | 40% | +150 | ▼ 20 |
| New York City, NY by November 30 | 66% | -190 | ▲ 1 |
| Philadelphia, PA by November 30 | 37% | +170 | — |
| Pittsburgh, PA by November 30 | 91% | -1011 | — |
| Salt Lake City, UT by November 30 | 94% | -1654 | ▼ 3 |
| St. Louis, MO by November 30 | 48% | +108 | ▼ 11 |
| Washington, DC by November 30 | 51% | -102 | ▲ 6 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on First snow of the 2026 season?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.