Fed rate cut by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2027 Meeting | 8% | +1120 | — |
| March 2027 Meeting | 13% | +700 | — |
| July 2027 Meeting | 48% | +108 | ▲ 1 |
| April 2027 Meeting | 48% | +111 | ▼ 0 |
| June 2027 Meeting | 32% | +217 | ▲ 1 |
| December 2026 Meeting | 2% | +6150 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 29, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Fed rate cut by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.