ECB Interest Rates: March 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No Change a 55% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 55% | -120 | ▼ 1 |
| 25 bps increase | 43% | +135 | ▲ 2 |
| 50+ bps increase | 4% | +2369 | ▼ 1 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 4% | +2532 | — |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | +7307 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 17 and March 18, 2027, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in ECB Interest Rates: March 2027?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No Change at 55%, about -120 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 18, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on ECB Interest Rates: March 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.