China Annual GDP Growth 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 4.0–5.0% a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0–5.0% | 96% | -2567 | — |
| 5.0–6.0% | 2% | +4344 | — |
| 3.0–4.0% | <1% | +11011 | — |
| 1.0–2.0% | <1% | +16567 | — |
| 9.0%+ | <1% | +33233 | — |
| 2.0–3.0% | <1% | +49900 | — |
| 8.0–9.0% | <1% | +49900 | — |
| 6.0-7.0% | <1% | +66567 | — |
| <1.0% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 7.0–8.0% | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 4.0–5.0% at 96%, about -2567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.