What will the biggest earthquake be on November 9, 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 6.1 or more a 25% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1 or more | 25% | +308 | — |
| Under 5.3 | 19% | +441 | ▲ 2 |
| 5.5 to 5.6 | 18% | +471 | — |
| 5.3 to 5.4 | 16% | +545 | — |
| 5.7 to 5.8 | 14% | +590 | — |
| 5.9 to 6.0 | 13% | +700 | — |
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 9, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 9, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 10, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 9, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 10, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in What will the biggest earthquake be on November 9, 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 6.1 or more at 25%, about +308 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 10, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will the biggest earthquake be on November 9, 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.