Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | +3233 | ▲ 1 |
| No | 97% | -3233 | ▼ 1 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category. The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify. Once a qualifying law or executive action has been created within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later repealed, enjoined, or never results in any payment actually being made. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official information from the U.S. government.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027"?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 97%, about -3233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.